The strategic dimensions of Iraqi Premier Al-Zaidi's upcoming visit to Türkiye

The visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to Ankara on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, during which he is scheduled to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will mark the third stop in a series of foreign visits since he took office. Such visits have become customary for successive Iraqi prime ministers during their first months in power, reflecting the importance of the regional and international dimensions of Iraq's foreign policy. The visit also comes amid Iraq's growing engagement with its regional neighbors and the wider international community, as Baghdad seeks to restore its long-absent role in shaping the region's political and security balance. Al-Zaidi's visit to Ankara reflects these priorities and represents a further step toward consolidating the strategic partnership between Iraq and Türkiye, which has expanded considerably across several fields in recent years. The planned talks are expected to cover economic cooperation, security, energy, and water, as well as the coordination of bilateral positions on regional issues. These discussions will take place against the backdrop of far-reaching regional transformations and challenges that could shape the future of the entire Middle East, particularly that of Iraq and Türkiye. Iraqi-Turkish relations rest on four principal pillars: trade and energy, security, water, and the Development Road project. Together, these issues form the foundation of the bilateral relationship. Of the four, water and security remain the most consequential, as they have often determined whether relations move toward cooperation or tension. Differences in the strategic calculations of decision-makers in both countries, particularly in their handling of the water and security dossiers, have frequently contributed to disputes and instability in bilateral relations, especially since 2003 -- assuming, of course, that one can speak of genuine stability before that year. Iraq harbors reservations regarding Türkiye's approach to the water issue, perceiving that Ankara ties the matter to Baghdad's policy toward the PKK, which uses certain border areas in northern Iraq as safe havens from which they launch attacks against Turkish forces, taking advantage of the region’s rugged terrain and the limited presence of Iraqi state authority. This divergence in threat perceptions has created a crisis of confidence that is clearly reflected in the political conduct of both governments. For Iraq, the dispute becomes particularly visible during periods of drought, low rainfall, and reduced water releases from Türkiye. For Türkiye, it becomes more pronounced whenever fighting with members of the PKK escalates. Nevertheless, the agreements reached by Iraq and Türkiye in recent years -- most notably the Framework Agreement on Water and the Security Memorandum of Understanding -- have established an important foundation for strategic understanding and long-term cooperation. These agreements could help address the principal sources of tension surrounding both portfolios. The Iraqi government’s decision on Saturday, July 25, 2026, to activate the water framework agreement with Türkiye and bring it into force from the beginning of September reflects the central importance of water security in Iraq’s national security calculations. Baghdad therefore expects Ankara to put forward practical measures, initiatives, and more sustainable solutions during the visit. Such steps would support Iraq’s efforts to safeguard its water security and confront the serious repercussions of scarcity across the country’s economic, social, and security landscape. At the same time, bilateral security cooperation in combating terrorist organizations has reached unprecedented levels. This was demonstrated by the Iraqi National Security Council’s decision in March 2024 to classify the PKK as a "banned organization," as well as by rulings issued by the Iraqi judiciary dissolving political parties on the grounds of their alleged links to the organization. Joint security cooperation culminated in the signing of the "Memorandum of Understanding on Military and Security Cooperation and Counterterrorism" in Ankara in August 2024. The memorandum provided for the establishment of a joint security coordination center and a High Joint Committee, as well as cooperation in combating banned organizations, conducting counterterrorism operations, providing training, and exchanging expertise. Iraq's unprecedentedly constructive approach to this issue affirmed its rejection of any attempt to use Iraqi territory as a launching point for attacks against neighboring countries. It also represented an important step in support of the Turkish government’s goal of achieving a "terror-free Türkiye." Such concrete progress could ultimately eliminate the points of contention between the two countries. The Development Road project constitutes the fourth pillar of Iraqi-Turkish relations and perhaps their most important component at the strategic level. Its importance stems from its geopolitical potential to deepen economic and commercial connectivity between Iraq and Türkiye while linking both countries to the Arabian Gulf. The project is regarded as one of the most significant economic integration initiatives in the region and beyond, as it would create one of the shortest trade routes connecting Asia and Europe through the Gulf, Iraq, and Türkiye. Baghdad and Ankara share the view that work on the project’s essential infrastructure must begin without delay, given the considerable economic and investment opportunities it could generate for both countries. In this context, Prime Minister Al-Zaidi’s call, during his meeting with Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloglu in Baghdad last week, was particularly significant. Al-Zaidi called for the establishment of a clear mechanism for financing and implementing the Development Road and for practical work to begin according to defined timetables. The call reflected the importance that the new Iraqi government attaches to relations with Türkiye and to the broad range of common interests underpinning them. It also reaffirmed Iraq’s commitment to expanding economic and investment cooperation with neighboring countries in ways that serve the interests of their peoples. Official Iraqi government sources have also stated that Al-Zaidi's visit to Türkiye will include the signing of several memoranda of understanding aimed at expanding bilateral cooperation across a number of vital sectors. In April 2024, during President Erdogan's visit to Baghdad at the invitation of then Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al-Sudani, Iraq and Türkiye signed a bilateral agreement concerning the Development Road project, along with a quadrilateral memorandum involving the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. During the visit, approximately 26 agreements were signed, covering economic, political, security, and development issues. Foremost among them was the "Strategic Framework Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Iraq and the Republic of Türkiye," which serves as a roadmap for a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. Al-Zaidi's visit to Ankara represents an important opportunity to strengthen bilateral relations and expand cooperation between Iraq and Türkiye, particularly in the energy sector. The visit comes as Iraq seeks alternative and secure routes for marketing its oil internationally and reducing its dependence on southern export terminals, following months of disruption caused by the repercussions of the US-Israeli war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the figures cited by the Iraqi side, this disruption has resulted in the loss of approximately 80% of the country’s oil exports. An Iraqi oil delegation that recently visited Türkiye held negotiations ahead of Al-Zaidi’s trip to Ankara. The talks sought to reach an arrangement acceptable to both countries for exporting Iraqi oil through Turkish ports. The Turkish government had welcomed the formation of Iraq’s new government under Al-Zaidi and extended an official invitation for him to visit Ankara. Both countries hope that the visit will lead to new bilateral partnerships across a range of sectors, particularly regarding oil exports. Iraq and Türkiye also seek to expand bilateral trade, currently estimated at approximately $17 billion, with the longer-term objective of raising it to $30 billion. The central reality underlying Iraqi-Turkish relations is that the forces encouraging cooperation and rapprochement outweigh those driving disagreement and discord. Under current regional conditions, and amid the challenges facing the peoples and states of the Middle East, their shared destiny requires decision-makers to strengthen cooperation, promote rapprochement, and reject conflict and war. Such an approach is essential to advancing the region's common interests and supporting efforts to achieve stability and peace among its countries. *Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of AHSAM.